This profile is part of a series of Climate Risk Country Profiles that are jointly developed by the World Bank Group (WBG) and the Asian Development Bank (ABD). These profiles synthesize the most relevant data and information on climate change, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation actions and policies at the country level.
According to this report, average temperatures in Uzbekistan are projected to rise by 4.8°C by 2090 and this warming is faster than expected. Under all but the lowest emission pathway, the annual probability of severe drought has been projected to increase by the end of the century. Severe droughts are expected to occur in nine out of ten years by 2090. Increased temperatures and glacier melt in other parts of the region could lead to water shortages on Uzbekistan's main rivers in the 2040s and 2050s. Due to the depletion of glacial meltwater, runoff rates will become more irregular and seasonal.
Projected temperature increases, increases in drought frequency, and water scarcity in Uzbekistan will reduce crop production by 25-63% by 2050 compared to the 2000-2009 baseline. Heat stress, severe intestinal infections, bacterial dysentery, and the resurgence of malaria are threatened by rising temperatures in Uzbekistan. Without support for adaptation and disaster risk reduction, climate change could disproportionately affect the poor and disenfranchised in Uzbekistan.